Yikes! I hope this is wrong.....

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:51 am

LURKING JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF CURRENT LONG TERM IS TRANSITION TO
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR... AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX DIVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO DISLODGE CHUNK OF ARCTIC
AIR SENDING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY MON JAN 21ST /MARTIN
LUTHER KING DAY/. 00Z GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR WITH GFS ADVERTISING 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C ON MON WHILE
ECMWF EVEN MORE BRUTAL AT -30C TO -33C BY 00Z TUE. REGARDLESS...
UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY CHANGES WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTREMELY
COLD PERIOD AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEK OF JAN 21-25TH... WITH THE
MAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS GENERALLY EQUATING TO WHETHER OR NOT
IT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING COLD. IF MEMORY SERVES CORRECT THE LAST
TIME WE`VE SEEN ANYTHING AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS WAS JAN `09
WHEN THE MORNING OF JAN 16TH SEVERAL SITES TIED OR BROKE ALL TIME
JAN RECORD LOWS... WITH LOWS THAT MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND -30F IN
SOME AREAS. LOOKING AT THE 12Z/16TH 850 MB TEMPS THEY WERE AROUND
-20C OR A LITTLE COLDER. THE KEY WAS MUCH OF THE REGION WAS SITTING
ON 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COVER AFTER A COUPLE OF HEAVY SNOW EVENTS
JUST DAYS APART AND WITHIN A WEEK PRIOR TO THE 16TH. SO... UNLESS
SOMETHING DRAMATICALLY AND TERRIBLY UNFORESEEN OCCURS WITHOUT THE DEEP
SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEEING ANY RECORD COLD POTENTIAL... THAT
IS... UNLESS THE HI-RES ECMWF WERE TO MAINTAIN 850 MB TEMPS OF -30C
TO -33C INTO TUE MORNING. THESE 850 MB TEMPS FROM ECMWF IN JUST THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK SFC RIDGING... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
WOULD SUPPORT LOWS NEAR TO ROUGHLY 3 DEGS BELOW THE PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS... OR GENERALLY NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS OF AROUND -20F TO -27F.

TimMAz6 · Post by **TimMAz6** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:42 am

it will interesting to see how today's forecast's for that cold period will really pan-out.

Here's my forcast.............not bad......yet.

<img src=http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c309/ ... B4F.jpg>[i][/i]

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:57 am

For sure-but it is just beyond the scope of the current forecast....

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:14 am

I'm following that one too, Jim. I *try* to be in the tropics for the coldest weather each winter but might have failed. Again.

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:35 am

Are you back yet???

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 11:49 am

'fraid so. Got home late Tuesday night.

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:53 pm

We know who to blame now.....LOL

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:15 pm

Hey, I got credit for bringing rain to OK (we're still in a drought, but the recent rain helped).
But might lose points for the rain being the freezing sort, as seen in this photo I took today (self portrait in frozen rain drop)
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/drterdal/8378785086/" title="TINY ice bead reflection of Erik under maple leaf bud by drterdal, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8329/8378 ... bb0b7f.jpg" width="279" height="323" alt="TINY ice bead reflection of Erik under maple leaf bud"></a>

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 4:28 pm

All I see is a nose, Erik

Jim...oh man, when YOUR guys start talking in Celcius, there's something wrong.
That CANNOT be your forecast!
The guys on the WX board are saying last week January brutal cold too.

What's the coldest your town has ever seen?
Barb

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:20 pm

I think it is -31F...the second year(winter) I started with the palms we saw -18F.

I remember being out there trying to reattach the plastic on the cactus shelter
and thinking it didn't feel that cold,then within a few minutes I realized my feet where
starting to become very hard/solid feeling!-LOL

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:57 pm

Ow, that is cold.
Our town many years ago was very close to that.

I remember our old beater of a truck wouldn't start after shopping downtown.
A very nice man came out of a retail shop with a jug full of hot tap water, poured it over the battery, and presto, it started.

within a few minutes I realized my feet were
starting to become very hard/solid feeling!

And you get pins-n-needles in feet when you climb into a hot bath to warm up. Weird feeling.

Erik, what a great photo by the way!
Incredible to have swollen buds in January...but that's Oklahoma!

Anyway, fingers crossed everybody gets through January unscathed.

Barb

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Mon Jan 14, 2013 2:25 pm

We're watching that cold air mass down here.
The state weather/climate folks are guardedly optimistic for a glancing blow at worst:
http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/foreca ... long_range
(forecast for January 22-28).
So far, above average temperatures for this winter. Still zone8b-sort of lows here (as was the case all last winter).

TimMAz6 · Post by **TimMAz6** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 5:09 pm

here's the comparison from last weeks forcast for the Jan 21-26 period vs. today's forcast of the same period.

Last week's forcast:
<img src=http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c309/ ... 949B4F.jpg>

Today's forcast:
<img src=http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c309/ ... CC32AC.jpg>

go figure.............the forcast got colder.

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Sun Jan 20, 2013 6:59 pm

Sorry. Looking good here--the worst is N & E of here, so lows in the 20s F tonight.

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 8:13 am

Our weather guys have the same difficulty getting things right.
Everything's protected now, right?
(...says to the "last minute man")

Barb

TimMAz6 · Post by **TimMAz6** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 5:51 pm

All protected Barb...............(we'll find out in a few weeks).

too bad temps keep dropping............still zone 7b............if you can call those temps 7b? I can't complain but it will be a good test for the Eucalyptus debeuzevillei.

<img src=http://i30.photobucket.com/albums/c309/ ... 3FC88A.jpg>

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Mon Jan 21, 2013 9:09 pm

Seems your temps rebound fairly quickly though.
Not 5 weeks straight of 18F

8 weeks until spring...can't wait.

So fed up with winter.

Barb

marceli · Post by **marceli** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:23 am

I hope this is wrong: temp may drop to -4F in few days

canadianplant · Post by **canadianplant** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 3:51 am

Minus 36 at the airport -30 in my yard

sidpook · Post by **sidpook** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 4:04 am

Yes, it finally hit here too and we even got snow last night....Trachies are blanketed and covered...Did ti yesterday, finally. I was hoping not to do it.

marceli · Post by **marceli** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 4:13 am

canadianplant wrote:Minus 36 at the airport -30 in my yard

Holy cow! And I was whining about upcoming -4F...

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 7:31 am

Finally went below zero officially(-1F) after almost 2 years-but.....still above zero at
my place so far(+1F).....just about 23 months now with no sub-zero readings.

canadianplant · Post by **canadianplant** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:31 am

I could only do a drive by message this morning..... but when I woke up, the weather network said -37C. Felt like -47C with the windchill (again, says the weather network). My thermometer said -30C (still, not bad relatively speaking).

I heard some people say they reached -40C further inland.

its -18C outside right now (at the airport), which is almost 20C warmer than this morning. Luckily we got a foot of snow the other day, so the ground and low plants are more then protected. The worse thing is I planted 7 fruit trees last year, and more then 70 perrenials (rhodies, sage, etc) and have more then 20 potted plants outside as well. Luckily all the pots are buried in snow.

IF I were growing palms in a box, the thermocube would explode.......

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:20 pm

-30F could be the end of my palms...thats what I was worried about when
I started this thread...luckily we have not seen that kind of cold,I think the Princeps
has the most heat and could stay at 10F in -30F temps-it would probably spear-pull from that.

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:49 pm

Hey Jim, how about an additionl blanket cover over the Washy and more tender palms
Any additional airspace will keep the Christmas lights warmth longer.
The effort would be worth it.

Heck, I'd be out looking to buy more Christmas lights....

Yeah, Jesse I saw that -37C re your place on the Weather Channel this morning.

Those weatherguys DID see this...two weeks ago.

Barb

andym · Post by **andym** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:07 pm

Well I guess its positively tropical here after seeing your double digit minus Fahrenheit readings

We are looking at milder weather albeit wet arriving the weekend... much needed as the plants in my shed are not getting any decent light

andym · Post by **andym** » Tue Jan 22, 2013 5:46 pm

Yikes... I've just been watching ABC news with the big freeze over there. I like the part where someone in Minnesota put a wet shirt outside for five minutes and brought it back in like stiff cardboard.