NOAA winter precip outlook.

Barrie · Post by **Barrie** » Tue Oct 13, 2009 10:49 pm

Here's the NOAA's winter precipitation outlook.
Below normal rainfall for Washington and extreme southern British Columbia. Included later in the winter are areas south of the Great Lakes.

Cheers, Barrie.

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:58 am

Wonder what the temps will look like?

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Tue Oct 27, 2009 7:50 pm

The NOAA is predicting slightly warmer than normal temps (on average) for my area:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... rchill.php
This is the usual product of an El Nino event: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
I am taking more risks this winter in decisions of what to dig and bring inside vs. leave in the ground and mulch heavily on this basis. Sure we'll have a few cold snaps, but I am counting on them being fewer and lasting fewer days than in a typical winter.
--Erik

BILL MA · Post by **BILL MA** » Wed Oct 28, 2009 3:44 pm

It's a tough call between the regular cold and el nino cool and much wetter. I guess I'd take cooler and wetter since everything is covered anyways.

Bill

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Sat Oct 31, 2009 8:43 pm

But doesn't El Nino take a few years to build up strength?

Cooler and wetter is good, as long as Siberian lows stay where they belong.
In Siberia.

I'd give my gardening shoes to have five years of mild winters just to see what could survive with minimal protection until plants were tough enough and old enough to fend for themselves.
i.e. two zones better (*dream*).

Barb

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:27 am

El Nino events can build over weeks to months.
Here is a readable update from the Australian meteorology bureau: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
It was published Oct. 28 and so is as current as I could find.
I am still not convinced Oklahoma will be affected. It takes quite a large El Nino event to be noticed up here.

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:08 am

Great link, thanks!

This excerpt is very encouraging:

Leading climate models suggest tropical ocean temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least early 2010.

Maybe el Nino will be large enough for Oklahoma to feel

Barb

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Thu Nov 26, 2009 6:57 am

A warmer winter than last year!

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... _top_title

Barb

Okanagan desert-palms · Post by **Okanagan desert-palms** » Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:41 pm

It`s about time we had a warm winter. The only problem is all the rain and flooding the Coast gets during El nino events.

John

Barrie · Post by **Barrie** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 2:06 am

According to the original post, looks like NOAA screwed up big time. November was one of the wettest here.

Wes North Van · Post by **Wes North Van** » Mon Nov 30, 2009 6:01 pm

I agree Barrie, I am sick of all the rain, although fairly mild temps.
Looks like this week will be drier and cooler with highs around 8C and lows close to freezing.

Barrie · Post by **Barrie** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 10:03 am

Same forecast for here too Wes. When the frost arrives it'll be the first of the season.
We do not need a repeat of last year!

Cheers, Barrie.

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Wed Dec 02, 2009 12:30 pm

Barrie
This winter should be quite "interesting",and I would bet NOTHING like the last 2.
We finally had out first month(Nov +7F) with above avg high temps.Of course Oct was -7!
I hope this is the beginning of a trend out of below normal weather here!

BILL MA · Post by **BILL MA** » Wed Dec 02, 2009 1:49 pm

My father was telling me he hear this was one of the warmest Novembers on record. There was a lot of temps in the 60's and 70's not sure how many degrees above average it was. Looks like my washies are really getting covered this weekend, mid 20's next week. Oh well, it was a good run Dec 6th isn't bad for washies in Massachusetts after all.

Bill

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Wed Dec 02, 2009 8:12 pm

Nice job Bill
You can find that info(weather underground) on the calender page,(at the top)I will post yours tomorrow for you if you don't see it.

lucky1 · Post by **lucky1** » Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:55 am

Yup...can feel that warmth

Where did I put my shorts?

Brrrrrr...for heaven's sake!

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=41576

Barb

TerdalFarm · Post by **TerdalFarm** » Fri Dec 11, 2009 9:18 am

That's for the link.
It takes a strong El Nino to make a noticeable difference here, like the 1997-1998 one. That was my first winter in Oklahoma and I assumed it was normal. So, I planted absurd things like Dicksonia outdoors that spring. Of course they were killed promptly when the next winter was typical.
Anyway, this gives me some hope for a warmer than usual winter. Even though we have already gotten colder than all of last winter (which admittedly was unusually warm).

hardyjim · Post by **hardyjim** » Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:32 pm

BILL
According to weatherunderground you were 53(F) to 40(F)
+1 on the avg high +5 on the avg low.
Almost exactly the same as here.

PalmsNorth.com

NOAA winter precip outlook.

NOAA winter precip outlook.

El Nino

El Nino timing

Moderate El Nino

wet

el Nino intensifying

NASA link

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