Winter extreme lows trendline

Paul Ont · Post by **Paul Ont** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:42 pm

For Kingston, Ontario. 1968-2007. I would have gone longer but the data was only available in 1968 and after. Must have been when they built the airport! The weather station is on the lake, but outside the city's heat island. Areas downtown are warmer then the chart indicates (probably even zone 6a now... Much as I hate to admit it). My garden is north of the city, probably as much as 1/2 zone colder. Overall (68-07) averages out to be zone 5a; if you follow the trendline the average is now -24.1 (-11f) and if you extrapolate that out it will be solid zone 6 in about 5-10 years time!
<img src="http://inlinethumb56.webshots.com/17207 ... 600Q85.jpg" alt="Kingston Weather data">

Barrie · Post by **Barrie** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 3:25 pm

Without looking at any data from this region, I doubt too much has changed in that same time frame. Maybe a bit milder in winter but not any more than a half zone at best.
If your trend continues, you could be zone 10 in about 100 years. Mango, papaya, coconut, guava

Cheers, Barrie.

Paul Ont · Post by **Paul Ont** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 3:50 pm

Barrie,
Actually using the USDA critera of 10 years Kingston has gone from 4b to 5b in a very short time. I don't like using such a short time fragment, so I used the full 30+ years to calculate the 5a desingation!
If we extrapolate the line out I'll be long gone before we even get into zone 9. Who knows though, this warming could accelerate at a faster and faster rate as each winter brings less and less arctic ice. The summers are longer and hotter, the average temperature (year round) is up, and the frost free period (and frost dates) has extended from the beginning of the graph to the end! Is it a blip or is it actually getting warmer?
I know it's not very convincing, but I thought it was cool to find evidence of warming while doing background climate data for my own interest!
FYI 2000 was by far the warmest winter in the region, and the only zone 7 winter we've ever had. Records for Kingston do go back well into the 1800's (not in an easy to read format) and I belive that 1988 is the second mildest winter (low of -20.8C)!

Barrie · Post by **Barrie** » Tue Jul 29, 2008 7:10 pm

Paul Ont wrote:1988 is the second mildest winter (low of -20.8C)!

Yikes!

That's still bitterly cold for nearly all exotics without protection. My hat's off to you guys in the very challenging regions who love exotics. For those of you interested in the Fahrenheit conversion ... -20.8 celcius is -5.5F.

Cheers, Barrie.

nlafrance3 · Post by **nlafrance3** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:40 am

Interesting data. I've been following the same type of thing with Edmonton's city centre data. The international airport is 30km from city centre, so its a horrible measure. Out of every 10 winters, we probably see 4 that are 5a now, 4 that are 4a or 4b, and two at max that are 3b. Our warmest winter was 1987 at -19.1.

Barrie · Post by **Barrie** » Mon Oct 20, 2008 10:17 am

Cooler than normal is forecast in many areas for Canada. Interesting is that they're only correct a bit better than half the time.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/ ... =forecasts

Cheers, Barrie.