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Last post from the Arctic outpost FFI

Post by hardyjim » Sat Jan 04, 2014 4:47 am

This mornings 20s will be a distant memory Sunday
increasingly strong Arctic cold advection will be well underway. The
main challenge during this initial period will be ending any snow in
the east...and timing on the onset of wind chill headlines. The
headlines for wind chill are the highest concern...and keeping the
message consistent and as simple as possible has been our goal on
this issuance. Pure meteorologically...Sunday will be mainly an
advisory day until late will Tuesday middle
morning...however...this is just brackets on what is a high
confidence and life threatening wind chill event. A warning will be
issued for the prior watch counties in the northwest starting at 6
am Sunday morning...then the remainder of counties will begin at
noon Sunday. This roughly matches the watch...and keep the message
consistent. By far...the worst conditions will be Sunday night
through Monday night...with a prolonged period of -35 to -45 chills
area wide. The north half should maximum our wind chill intensity in the
-48 to -53 between 4 am Monday and 9 am Monday. Actual temperatures
will slowly fall Sunday within the -5 to +7 temperature range. By
Sunday at 6 PM...we are already expecting actual temperatures to by
-10 northwest to -2 southeast. Lows Sunday night appear set through
pure cold advection/no radiational cooling to reach -19 to -25 in
the north 1/2 to -14 to -19 in the south half. Winds overnight will
be strong...sustained around 20 to 25 miles per hour...gusting to 30 to 35 miles per hour.
This is why the wind chills will be so excruciatingly cold. Similar
winds will continue through early Monday evening...before slowly
backing down. If anything...this may be slightly underdone given the
whopping gradient between a strengthening sub 1000mb low in the
eastern Great Lakes...and a astoundingly strong 1050+ mb high
entering Montana. This gradient may create legitimate blowing snow
threat Sunday and Sunday night. In addition...intense advection of
Arctic air will keep the boundary layer mixed continuously...which
often is underplayed by models.

Beyond Tuesday...a warm up is forecast...but it will take several
days to rid the region of Arctic air. Some over running snows is a
growing threat for Wednesday and Thursday...but at this
point...models do not show strong enough dynamics to create much of
a storm threat.

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<img src=" ... rfield.gif" border=0

<img src=" ... rfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />

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Post by DesertZone » Sat Jan 04, 2014 12:05 pm

I feel for you and everyone else in the arctic blast zone.

Been about normal here, but when the sun shines with no snow on the ground the days warm up faster (feels warmer). I'm still digging in dirt here and at work. Normally the frost would be 2-4 feet deep. :D
Shoshone Idaho weather
<img src=" ... ooding.gif" alt="Click for Pearce, Arizona Forecast" border="0" height="50" width="150" /></a>
Here's to all the global warming pushers, may your winters be -30 below and four feet of snow in your driveway. Because I want you happy.

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