Thsi is absolutely amazing!

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hardyjim
Palm Grove
Posts: 4700
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:00 pm
Location: Fairfield Iowa 5b

Thsi is absolutely amazing!

Post by hardyjim » Fri Jan 03, 2014 7:32 am

This forecast will represent a very bad day outside santas
workshop. It is going to be extremely cold. There is no doubt of
that...and our job becomes how best to communicate this serious
threat to human and animal health.

Models now bring the 1st of two Arctic fronts into the County Warning Area Saturday
morning...and with cloud cover over snow and a northwest wind...we
should not be as warm as earlier advertised. A guidance blend has our
northwest 1/3 not even rising out of the lower 20s...with out
southeast still reaching lower 30s. A wave riding along this front
should squeeze out some light snow in the southeast 1/2 of the County Warning Area
Saturday afternoon...with a possible snow event Saturday night
through Sunday as a storm brushes the County Warning Area as the much strong Arctic
front arrives. This snow event looks to possibly bring 1 to 3 inches
to the southeast 1/2 to 1/3 of the County Warning Area. Should it occur to that
magnitude...a Winter Weather Advisory is possible for snow and
blowing snow.

Normally we would focus more on this light snow event...but tonight
much work has gone into the wind chill and temperature forecast. A
true unaltered/modified Arctic airmass will sweep through the County Warning Area
Sunday through Tuesday...resulting in a potentially deadly
combination of strong winds and extreme cold. With models now
consistently showing -30 to -35 air at 850mb moving over the County Warning Area
Sunday night...we will cold advect down to the -20 to -10 range
despite any real radiational cooling. Winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour Sunday
through Monday night will combine with temperatures remaining in the
-10 to -20 range during the period to produce a prolong period of
-25 to -35 wind chills Sunday through Tuesday night. With this
period...Monday appears especially dangerous...with a real threat
for -40 to -50 wind chills during the morning. This type of chill
can easily damage skin in a few minutes...and could kill pets and
livestock if left unprotected. This is not your grandfathers tale of
cold weather...this is a real near record cold outbreak.
Temperatures may not exceed record lows only due to the fact that it
will remain windy through Monday evening. As a forecaster...I have
not produced a wind chill forecast this cold since before the new
wind chill chart/calculations were released in 2001...correcting the
old charts over forecast of extreme cold.

Beyond Tuesday...modification is forecast...but temperatures only
climb closer to normal...only are forecast to reach the upper 20s
until Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday...a chance of light snow is
broad brushed into the forecast as warm air advection driven forcing event possibly
affects the Midwest.
Ervin






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TimMAz6
Palm Grove
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Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2010 2:15 am
Location: Massachusetts USDA 6b

Post by TimMAz6 » Sat Jan 04, 2014 5:43 pm

Stay warm Jim......best wishes to your Sequoiadendron.
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