Are we heading for a new ice age ?

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Beny
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Are we heading for a new ice age ?

Post by Beny » Tue Mar 19, 2013 9:55 am

Look that folks, i hope they are wrong. But i checked a lots of scientist articles this winter. And thats looking bad for the next years...just remember the last winter (except last year), we had more cold snap in Europe and North America. The cold heading further south than usual and more big snow storm. The gulf stream are lost 20% in few years, du to the ice melting in the arctic and Groenland. Thats gonna stop this current and cool down the middle latitude. :(
Thats gonna be bad for our palms ...

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 132420.htm

Ben



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Post by canadianplant » Tue Mar 19, 2013 10:25 am

More severe winters does not signify its getting colder or an ice age. There is a noticeable warming trend over the last 100 years, more noticeable over the last 30. Europe is feeling like they are getting colder because those currents they depend on for warmth are changing (in other words, they are warmer then they "should" be given the latitude). The last bit of the article explains it:

""A lot of times people say, 'Wait a second, which is it going to be -- more snow or more warming?' Well, it depends on a lot of factors, and I guess this was a really good winter demonstrating that," Greene said. "What we can expect, however, is the Arctic wildcard stacking the deck in favor of more severe winter outbreaks in the future."
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Post by lucky1 » Tue Mar 19, 2013 2:27 pm

Agree it's brutal, Beny.
We don't get to benefit from the few "good" things about Global Warming, just the bad stuff.

Tough to plan when we're used to decent weather.

The last two years in B.C.--both March and April -- were terribly cold and windy.
Basically we have no spring any more.

Used to be T-shirt weather in March.
Now it's longjohns.
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Post by gpenny » Tue Mar 19, 2013 2:59 pm

Ahh, the coming ice age. Here we go again!! I went to college in the early 70's and that was all we heard from all the experts. Guess what, they were wrong then and probably are now! Just relax and realize that no man really knows.

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Post by canadianplant » Tue Mar 19, 2013 3:32 pm

Plants and animals are a good indication:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story ... north.html
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Post by lucky1 » Tue Mar 19, 2013 4:25 pm

I rely on the Indians.
How do they know winter's coming?

"White man putting up wood," they say.

(Sorry if anyone's offended by this non-politically-correct joke).
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Post by Beny » Tue Mar 19, 2013 5:59 pm

canadianplant wrote:Plants and animals are a good indication:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story ... north.html

Yes, but they are following their instinct...they know know how the big planet machine works. We re just starting to understand few things about this.
If the oceanic current conveyor stop, one thing we know is, the climate will make a drastic change. But guy's i hope it will not happen and we are wrong. Only the future will tell us that :wink:

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Post by canadianplant » Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:04 pm

lucky1 wrote:I rely on the Indians.
How do they know winter's coming?

"White man putting up wood," they say.

(Sorry if anyone's offended by this non-politically-correct joke).
This indian gave a good way :P (not offended)
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Post by DesertZone » Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:00 pm

gpenny wrote:Ahh, the coming ice age. Here we go again!! I went to college in the early 70's and that was all we heard from all the experts. Guess what, they were wrong then and probably are now! Just relax and realize that no man really knows.
I agree, they can't even get a 5 day forcast right. :lol:
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Post by canadianplant » Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:50 am

gpenny wrote:Ahh, the coming ice age. Here we go again!! I went to college in the early 70's and that was all we heard from all the experts. Guess what, they were wrong then and probably are now! Just relax and realize that no man really knows.
Well, I can see your stance on that. Back in the 70s, computer modeling wasnt the best, only due to the technology we had back then. We found out moe about our climate in the last decade then the last 3. Computer technology was aided my weather forcasters trying to get more power to deal with all the variables. Sure it isnt perfect, but computer power has gone up 1000 times since the 70s.

We are able to take in more data from further back and date things better as well.

There is also a difference between the weather forcasts we see, and the long term climate forcasts. The weather forcasts are based on information in a 30 year period. No wonder the forecasts are off! When compiling long term weather patterns, they usually input all the weather data they can find for that period.
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Post by gpenny » Wed Mar 20, 2013 4:47 am

Computer models can only use data from the past. In my humble opinion they can not predict (with any degree of confidence) what future changes might be (there are just too many variables involved). Just look what the 30 day European model was calling for 30 days ago (opposite of what is occurring). If we can't get 30 days right how can we get 30 years? I'm not saying we quit trying to figure things out,just saying we're not there by a long shot!!

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Post by canadianplant » Wed Mar 20, 2013 6:28 am

gpenny wrote:Computer models can only use data from the past. In my humble opinion they can not predict (with any degree of confidence) what future changes might be (there are just too many variables involved). Just look what the 30 day European model was calling for 30 days ago (opposite of what is occurring). If we can't get 30 days right how can we get 30 years? I'm not saying we quit trying to figure things out,just saying we're not there by a long shot!!
Because that is usual misconception, for the reasons mentioned above. They use different data (generally), but still use information about the past. The difference is weather predictions on the weather channel are derived using 30 yr data spans, while climate data is using all available climate data for 100 000 - million year time scales or more. Sure its not perfect as we wont know everything about the past (yes variables, but computers can handle way more data then the 70s).

I dont understand why they use 30 year intervals in weather forcasting. It may have to do with sheer numbers (yes, variables :P) but they do long time scales when doing past climates...

They also draw parallels between warming now and past events. Here is a great National Geographic article about one of the warmest times in "recent" history:

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/ ... unzig-text
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Post by Paul Ont » Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:35 am

Can we put that "global cooling" myth on ice finally? Never was a consensus and was only a small minority of scientists who ever pushed this idea.

I'm getting tired of posting this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

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Post by canadianplant » Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:41 am

Paul Ont wrote:Can we put that "global cooling" myth on ice finally? Never was a consensus and was only a small minority of scientists who ever pushed this idea.

I'm getting tired of posting this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling
But its snowing in Boston :shock: (For the record, that is indeed sarcasm)
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Post by lucky1 » Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:59 am

All right.

Gonna call it municipal cooling ... or "where's the freaking sun" from now on.

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Post by gpenny » Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:32 am

I can assure you that it was highly pushed in university teachings and was more widely accepted that what Wikipedia citings now say! I lived through it!! I have been a weather geek since keeping daily journals as an 8 year old child and I know what was being taught and hyped by many.

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Post by canadianplant » Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:56 am

No ones doubting it was popular, but like most things, it was media driven (yes, like now with "global warming"). The data was never solid (pun?) Not saying its perfect now, but we have a much better picture of long term patterns and cause and effects.
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Post by gpenny » Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:59 am

Agreed!

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Post by Beny » Wed Mar 20, 2013 1:39 pm

Me too, im agree with you Canadianplant. They based their research on the ice carot from the groenland, and like that they can see that every time in the past the planet got warmer, they saw a brutal switch in the global climate patern. Cooling down the planet by a few degree, but they are not sure yet whats causing that. But they are focusing on the thermohaline current.
When the last ice age began to end, 10000 years ago, a lots of water from ther melting glacier over the entire Canada was stuck into a big reservoir (today the Great lakes are a vestige of that). And somewhere near -9000 years the reservoir emptied in, what is today the Hudson Bay, and all these cold fresh water flow into the arctic ocean and then the north Atlantic ocean. Thats stoped the thermohaline current. The gulf stream plunged further south, cooling down the Europe and all the Northern Emisphere for a decades.
Thats what we see today with the melting Groenland and Arctic.

Like i said, i hope they are wrong and all these 400ppm of CO2 in the air will moderate that brutal change if its happen :wink:

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Post by canadianplant » Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:10 pm

Ben - You are refering to lake Agazziz. Probably one of the most important events in our history.
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Post by TimMAz6 » Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:12 pm

I don't believe any news article/scientist who claims they understand the climate system.........does anyone really think we will understand world climate change in our lifetime? If we understand climate change then why are we continuing to study it? :? We study climate change cause we don't understand it. :D
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Post by DesertZone » Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:41 pm

TimMAz6 wrote:I don't believe any news article/scientist who claims they understand the climate system.........does anyone really think we will understand world climate change in our lifetime? If we understand climate change then why are we continuing to study it? :? We study climate change cause we don't understand it. :D
Word! :lol:
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Post by canadianplant » Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:22 pm

We will never fully understand anything. Yet we learn more and more things. And I have not read a single article saying any scientist claim they fully understand the climate system, or any field. I wouldnt believe those articles either.
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Post by Beny » Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:35 am

I don t want to be obsess but there s another exemple thats something going wrong. The Europe cooling down again, in the end of march :? . Many place in northern Europe are well below average ,including UK and France. There s a ridge of hight presure siting over Groenland and perturbing the jet stream, we saw more things like that in the last few years....

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... rm/8368551

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Post by hardyjim » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:25 am

I prefer the term climate change and in the spirit of John Lennon,I would take it another step
and say,"instant climate change"(is going to get you)....I have kept an open mind about global warming
and such but what I see happening is what we may call "the usual extremes" running almost on top of each other.

We may see the coldest March in history here this year and this directly following one of-if not thee-warmest
in history...last year we were around +15F over average(44/65F)and this year 21/36F,about -15F below avg(highs)
to see this happen (going from the warmest to coldest the very next year)is very odd to me.
Another figure to give some perspective-we saw a handful of LOW temps of upper 50s to 60F last
March-those were the lows! We have not hit 60F once this March and there is nothing in the forecast
to make me believe we will this March.

When you just average the numbers it adds up correctly because for the 2 years you come up pretty much
dead on average-but my feeling/worry is that mother nature is trying to correct an imbalance in the proportion
of warming in the mid latitudes by dumping huge amounts of cold air down...but there is also a lot of warmth going north
they call these patterns "blocking"but they are becoming somewhat random and frequent IMO like the planet
is having to go to extremes to balance temps....so it stops the "normal"progression and opens a valve to clear the excess...

Not an alarmist here but definitely not one to bury my head in the sand....unless its warm :)

The one blessing in this is that we did not have an unusually warm February where everything bloomed/leafed
out and was hammered this month but this pattern does look like a shift(back to cold) from the past 2 years or so of drought and
above normal temps(here at least)-it will be interesting to see what kind of summer we have here-will it be another cool one?????
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Post by canadianplant » Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:58 am

hardyjim wrote:I prefer the term climate change .....;
We may see the coldest March in history here
Thats the problem with saying "global warming". Sure there is a general warming trend, but it is warming all over. The weather patterns are changing if anything right now, which is bad enough in itself IMO.
Not an alarmist here but definitely not one to bury my head in the sand....unless its warm :)
I think you found a signature Jim! LOL
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Post by hardyjim » Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:52 pm

canadianplant wrote:
hardyjim wrote:I prefer the term climate change .....;
We may see the coldest March in history here
Thats the problem with saying "global warming". Sure there is a general warming trend, but it is warming all over. The weather patterns are changing if anything right now, which is bad enough in itself IMO.
Not an alarmist here but definitely not one to bury my head in the sand....unless its warm :)
I think you found a signature Jim! LOL



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Post by Beny » Tue Apr 02, 2013 2:52 pm

Geeezzz....we still under normal temp. after having a few days of normal temp. here in Montreal. Still have snow in my yard, but i can see some grass spots :lol: . All the eastern and central US and Canada are well below the average. Thats included the Europe too. And there was a big low sitting over greenland last weekend, it was a monster with a category 3 huricane winds, 200km/h, and huge from the newfounland,Canada to Portugal and from Greenland to the Caribean :shock: They rarely saw that before...Its -4c today and the normal high is +8c ...
Ben

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Post by lucky1 » Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:15 pm

Its -4c today and the normal high is +8c ...
Holy moly, Ben. :shock:

Weird start to 2013 for a lot of folks.

Glad you can see some grass spots :lol: :lol:
We've mowed the lawn twice...

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Post by TimMAz6 » Wed Apr 03, 2013 7:08 am

what's the strongest indicator of a warming planet? I tend to 'believe' sea level the most. I'm not so much a 'believer' in global temperature or ice extent accuracy.................perhaps sea level is not accurate either? The global sea level appears to be rising; therefore, the global temperatures would be rising as well. I'm not seeing much evidence of a cooling planet yet...............I really want to warming to continue. :D I can only imagine sea levels are heading back to where they peaked in the recent past (another 10 to 20 feet higher in elevation). The only question is...........how long will this take?:?

<img src=http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2013 ... global.png>


Global sea ice area is technically 'above normal' but the arctic summer lows seem to be trending down still.
<img src=http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere ... htrend.jpg>


Global temperature data is all over the place.....not too confident in it's measurements.
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Post by canadianplant » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:09 am

Not a real easy question Tim.... As far as im aware its melting glaciers and ice in the north and south, since the warming effect is more profound the closer you get to the poles. there are probably many factors the take into account, from ice cores all the way up to the atmospheric composition. The one thing that causes run away warming is methane, which is something like 10 times more potent of a greenhouse gas then CO2. Methane pockets have already begun to pop.

http://www.nature.com/news/2008/081203/ ... .1275.html (2008)


http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... rming.html

http://phys.org/news186920485.html
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Post by Beny » Wed Apr 03, 2013 10:26 am

[I really want to warming to continue. :D

Me too Tim, im agree with these graphics. But like Canadianplant said, we don t know the effects of these raising temp. in the upper atmosphere . And does all these amount of fresh water du to the melting ice will change the gulfstream pattern. I hope not. Hope that all these ppm of carbon dioxide and methane will reduce the cooling :?
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Post by canadianplant » Wed Apr 17, 2013 4:36 am

All you have to do is look at the graphs, even the ones Tim posted. The temps, even when going cold, or warm never do a simple drop or rise in a straight line. There will be deviations from the norm as extreme highs, as well as drops to a relative normal. One year does not reflect the last 50 years of the warming trend when you graph the temps. This is the most "normal" year ive seen in the last 15 years or so here
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Post by TimMAz6 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 6:13 pm

I'm a firm believer that we don't understand the cause(s) of climate change yet. The CO2 theory is just a theory in my opinion. Just because the CO2 theory 'makes sense' doesn't mean it's the cause of global warming. I think there are other factors we just don't understand yet.

Things to ponder.....
I've noticed that the Dwarf Alberta Spruce's in our area are breaking mutation and going back to the 'normal form' all over the place....................hmmmmmmmm............what's causing that? It was a rare sight to see them breaking mutation 20 years ago. Could this be the same cause of climate change??? :? Pehaps it's the excess CO2? or is it something else like type/amount of radiation penetrating our atmosphere?? Could it be all the nuclear bombs which were tested?? hmmmmmm.....makes you think. :?
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canadianplant
Clumping Palm
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Post by canadianplant » Sat Apr 20, 2013 7:33 pm

Dwarf alberta spruce have a tendancy to revert. Since most plant we grow are clones, it isnt going to take long before a not so common problem, becomes so.

Even if the planet is naturally warming, that does not mean out CO2 output means nothing. If anything, our CO2 output is making any natural warming worse. We are constantly pumping it into the atmosphere and its increasing every year worldwide. There is also a difference between natural wobbles in the earth causing glaciation or volcanoes ending a snowball earth and us burning fossil fuels like they have no end and degrading ecosystems which cause a rise in CO2. Even if you take our machines that run on petroleum products out of mind, you still have the fact we have cut down roughly half the worlds forests, and those that have regrown are generally secondary growth, (not as productive). One of the main users of CO2 is pretty much half working.

It is an unfortunate truth that the odds are we wont know how the climate works completely. We also dont fully understand gravity, yet we can still escape its grasp and get to space. All evidence points to warming in general, and I should add I write ths after 20cm of snow, and -10C temps! Plant and animal species are already moving further up mountains, or further north and ice caps are melting faster and moreso than anytime after the end of the last ice age.

There are definitely factors we dont know yet. No scientist would disagree (me either :D ) but the evidence our activities are affecting the climate is piling up more and more. Again, there is no argument that the climate is changing (generally warming), the real argument is why. I think the problem may be there are many things causing the change, and we seem to be trying to pin it on 2 or 3.
"The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results" - einstien

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