If your a weather watcher-next week could get interesting

[hardyjim]

Scientific forecaster discussion;


This weekend...deep vortex in Canada drops southward sending a
series of stronger troughs/clippers farther south into the Midwest
with each system bringing progressively colder air. European model (ecmwf) brings a
strong cold front across the County Warning Area Saturday into Saturday night and
just clips our far northern counties with some light snow or
flurries. Will maintain a dry forecast for now but will need to
monitor for possible expansion of the snow area to the south. Lows
Saturday night will dip into the single digits and teens with highs
on Sunday in the teens to lower 20s.


Early next week...much stronger storm system pushes into the
Midwest/Great Lakes releasing a chunk of very cold Arctic air
southward across much of the eastern half of the nation. The
European model (ecmwf)/GFS brings -26 to -27c 850 mb temperatures into the dvn County Warning Area on
Monday as the polar jet drops south of our area. This airmass is
originating from an area in Canada that had maximum temperatures
yesterday of 25 below zero. Always concerned with such a strong
Arctic front that this will generate a period of accumulating snow
on the leading edge and just behind the front along with strong
winds with such strong cold air advection. This will need to be
monitored as we get closer to the event.


The coldest air in 4 years will be arriving and depending on how
much snow is on the ground the potential is there for some locations
to have maximum temperatures below zero. This has not happened since
January 15 2009. For now the model consensus is to have highs in the
single digits and teens on Monday and then as low as 5 below on
Monday night. However...any snow on the ground would allow for even
colder readings. In addition...operational models have a difficult
time with extreme events and may not be latching onto the severity
of the airmass this far out in time. Operational models have been
consistent with this scenario so confidence is high. Bottom line...
temperatures may be much colder than depicted and the Midwest will
be in for a shock when this airmass arrives. The good news is it
appears temperatures quickly moderate by the middle of next week as
zonal flow returns ahead of another fresh supply of Arctic air
dropping into the northern plains. However...strong warm air
advection may also bring accumulating snow to the County Warning Area by middle week.

[canadianplant]

Theyve been pedicting that drop in temps for a week or so now for here, and although the temp dropped, it hasnt done so like they have said. Last week they said today was supposed to be -16C for a high, it is currently-10C.

[lucky1]

Ugh, Jim.
At least no forecast of windstorms with it.

Sounds fairly short-lived, IF it gets that bad.
I think they were talking about Calgary, Alberta at -25C for a high a couple of days ago.
Today they were warmer than us....+5C

Barb