Record cold approaching??????

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hardyjim
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Record cold approaching??????

Post by hardyjim » Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:40 pm

9/12-weatherunderground forecasters discussion.



Long term...Thursday night through next Wednesday...
the main story is that the medium range models continue to support a
pattern shift to much colder weather by midweek and beyond... with
potential for early frost/freeze and record to near record cold
temperatures.


Heres the rest of it-


Tue-Wed... aforementioned front looks to usher in much colder air
during this period and beyond as large upper trough develops
over the central Continental U.S.. medium range models all agree on this pattern
shift thus not question of if it will turn colder... rather how much
colder. Recent runs of GFS and European model (ecmwf) would support initial cold
shot Tuesday into Wednesday with 850 mb temperatures in the single digits to possibly
near 0c! This would likely result in near record to record cold temperatures
with potential for frost and yes even a freeze in some areas by 12z
Wednesday. GFS and European model (ecmwf) both support the typical fall roller coaster on
temperatures and indicate moderation into Friday before next disturbance and
attendant cold front Ushers in another surge of possibly even colder
air for the weekend... just in time for the autumnal equinox. The
colder air arriving next week is the main weather story and will be
monitoring closely in the coming days. McClure


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Post by canadianplant » Wed Sep 12, 2012 6:58 pm

no....

Not here. And if im not that cold, you shouldnt be, unless there is a really weird jetstream......
"The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results" - einstien

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hardyjim
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Post by hardyjim » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:29 am

Not showing in the forecasts yet and since
it's a significant pattern shift,we may not hear to much
more about it until the weekend-will monitor and see if it's
just more smoke,like all last winter. :)
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Post by canadianplant » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:32 am

I think theyre expecting the cold the canadian rockies/western praries had:

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... topstories

They are calling for temps to dip here, but remain slightly above seasonal. I think the "drop" will be to a more normal pattern. Well see.

Ill keep an eye out now. Thanks Jim
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Post by lucky1 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 9:45 am

Sheesh, Jim, I had to look at the date of your posting... :?
Bet it won't be as dramatic as that.

We've had quite the cooldown since Monday, and the airport reported a low of 3C the last two nights.
Not a hint of frost up here on the south hills.

Weird though that cold air dipped southeast out of Alaska.
A sign of Fall for sure...
:x

Barb
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Post by TerdalFarm » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:28 am

Feeling the cool down here as well. I for one am liking it--reminds me of Oregon in July. :lol:
A wx station in western Oklahoma recorded a 39 F this morning. However, no actual frosts in the forecast. I figure bottle palms and other tenders have a few more weeks outside.

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Post by canadianplant » Fri Sep 14, 2012 7:31 am

Jim - check tonights weather. Supposedly going to 1C here, and 0C the next night (will probably change). You may actually get a cool down after all...
"The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results" - einstien

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hardyjim
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Post by hardyjim » Fri Sep 14, 2012 8:01 am

What they said this morning



OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH LITTLE NEAR
TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCES. VERIFICATION COMBINED WITH
D_PROG_DT TOOLS SUGGEST BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
BEYOND. PREFER A 60/40 BLEND OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF. TREND IS COLDER
WITH 2 TO 2.5 SIGMA OF BELOW NORMAL THERMAL VALUES...SUPPORTING
WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF COOL RECORDS.


MONDAY...HAVE 50 POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER RETAINED BUT NOT PROBABLE
ATTM DUE TO ANAFRONT FORCING PROFILES FOR DAY SHIFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND PW/S SUGGEST MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS WITH INTENSIFYING
STRONG UPPER TROUGH. HI TEMPERATURE A CHALLENGE WITH STRONG GRADIENT
AND FALLING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN PM BEHIND FRONT AND GUSTY AND
BREEZY NW WINDS. MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING BY MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS
PER LOCAL TECHNIQUES TO BE 3 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT FORECAST...
OR UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF 0 TO +2C WITH NW WIND
OF 5-10+ MPH TO LIMIT BL DECOUPLING FOR EVEN COLDER VALUES. THUS...
THIS SUGGESTS MINS COULD BE WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF RECORD COLD MINS TO
MONITOR.

TUESDAY...HIGHS TO STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S WITH NW
WINDS OF 10-20+ MPH. THIS WOULD BE 10 UP TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY NIGHT...IF RETURN SOUTH FLOW DELAYED...FAVORED FOR MINS IN
THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE RANGE WITH RISK OF FROST WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
QUESTION SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT TRENDS IS A
FASTER ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THE KEY. IF RETURN FLOW IS
DELAYED BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS...THEN AGAIN NEAR RECORD COOL MINS
POSSIBLE.





They really get in depth here!
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lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 11:47 am

below average confidence
Sheesh.

Sounds like an early Omega block, huh?
Doesn't that happen mostly during winter? (when we freeze our toes off in BC Canada).

Weather forecasts are becoming more and more verbose
Sounds like they want to minimize "liability".
Guess they heard that government officials in S.Europe were being blamed/sued for not forecasting earthquakes? :shock: :?

Barb[/i]
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Post by hardyjim » Fri Sep 14, 2012 12:00 pm

What I get out of it is- low confidence right now- as there are model discrepancies....

Timing is also important as mentioned,a little slow down in the next front and winds(decouple)
-which I believe means they separate from the upper level winds-Tuesday night- allowing temps to drop.

The pattern is/appears to be progressive though so no blocks or blocky patterns yet.


Absolutely gorgeous the next few days anyway-so-who cares right now :D :P
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lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:24 pm

Yeah, Jim, I just searched wunderground fairfield iowa and your weather looks just fine.

Record cold?
Maybe in the beer fridge. :lol:
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hardyjim
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Post by hardyjim » Sat Sep 15, 2012 7:51 am

They won't show it in the forecasts until Sunday probably-

The news just gets worse but we shall see......



Sunday...one more pleasantly comfortable day with near normal highs
of 75 to 80 degrees and light south winds and fair skies. Sunday
night...some low clouds to arrive from Missouri ahead of the strong
cold front with mins mostly near 60 degrees. Later shifts may need to
assess risk of some patchy fog and drizzle toward daybreak.


Monday...strong front to arrive with bands of rain and possibly
isolated thunder if enough middle level forcing. Severe risk appears
none at this time with limited instability at or below 1000 j/kg...wbz at or above 10k above ground level
and poor bl lapse rate for gusty winds at or below 45 miles per hour even with best PM
heating situations of 70+ degrees southeast sections at this time for later shifts
to reconsider. Rain amounts suggested to be mostly .1 to .25 of an
inch due to the fast progressive nature of this strong cold front
even though precipitable water values are about 1.25 inches. Key will be risk of
thunderstorms as they could double or triple forecast rain amounts as
they move northeast at 25 to 35 miles per hour. Large high temperature gradient
with lower 60s northwest with nearly steady PM values to lower to
middle 70s far southeast sections. Most central and SW locations will see
falling PM temperatures with gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with good
overturning bl mixing due to strong cold air advection and clearing skies with boost
of September sunshine...this will enhance the gusty nature of winds.
Monday night...this is a challenge as upper trough is again colder
and strong with likely 850 temperatures to crash to near to possible below
zero with -2c values in north suggested. With clear skies and
northwest winds of 4 to 8 miles per hour as is forecast...to limit bl decoupling
this still supports mins 33-38 degrees for near record to record cold
risk. The magnitude of bl decoupling should become better determined
next 24-36 hours. Currently have mins 36-41 degrees.


Tuesday...a brisk day with fair skies and fair weather cumulus clouds
and northwest winds of 10-20+ miles per hour with highs struggling to reach 60 degrees
in north sections...this would be at least 15 degrees below normal.
Tuesday night...trend of colder and slower is evident this cycle as
was discussed last night. This poses a challenge as if surface high
allows...as is currently suggested...several hours of nearly calm
winds for bl decoupling...and clear skies...this support mins of 30
to 35 degrees that would probably most break cold min records.
Favored low lying areas could even see upper 20s...this obviously
would require frost and possibly freeze headlines. Once again...the
this risk and trend should be better ascertained the next 24-36
hours.


Wednesday and Thursday...strong reinforcing shot of cold air and deep
upper trough nearby support very cold rain showers with probability of precipitation probably
needing raising when timing better clarified. Highs of 65 to 75 with
mins mostly in the 40s. Again strong baroclinic zone overhead and
deepness of trough do suggest temperatures may need lowering with
potential wrap-around low clouds and near record cold maximum temperatures in
north not out of the question if zone shifts a bit further south...
that will need monitoring the next couple of days to see how phasing
occurs and speed and strength of surface and upper air occlusion.
Remarkably...some evidence parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota could see
some wet snow if this trend of deep cyclogenesis the past 2 days is
confirmed.


Friday...strong cyclonic northwest flow portends below to well below normal
temperatures with current highs in the mostly middle 60s and lows in the lower
40s likely several degrees too mild. Some techniques suggest mins
near freezing and some 55-60 degree highs may not be out of the
question with cold PM rain showers as trigger temperatures to be
reached with lots of cold air aloft and gusty to possibly very
gusty winds.
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lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Sat Sep 15, 2012 1:57 pm

Holy cow, Jim, that's some change!

Now you'll know where it came from.
In Alaska, severe windstorms tore leaves from the trees.
They never get such high winds this time of year.

http://www.ktuu.com/news/southcentral-a ... 2524.story

Bet you'll enjoy the 1 to 3 inches of rain.
Hope you don't get the rest of that forecast.

Barb
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hardyjim
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Post by hardyjim » Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:22 am

1 to 3 inches-not forecasted here,they are admitting finally after 6 different
fronts that we will only see .10 to .20" this(time) after numerous forecasts of 2-4"
and everytime we get .20 to .29"

Today they say.....



Monday...only minor changes made. Strong front to arrive and pass
from northwest to southeast between 7 am and 5 PM. This to lead to strong maximum
temperature gradient with lower 60s...or near 60 degrees far northwest 1/3
with nearly steady temperatures during from late morning and through
afternoon. Central and southeast sections to have middle day to early
afternoon highs 70-75 and then falling temperatures by 10 degrees or
more after cold front passes with northwest winds of 15 to 25+ miles per hour. Southeast 1/3
to 1/2 of area if temperatures rise into the middle 70s with lower 60
dewpoints...MUCAPE of 1000-1200 j/kg...may experience isolated
thunderstorms to fire along front afternoon hours...some strong with
primary risk hail to size of nickels due to steep middle level lapse
rates and wbz of 9-10k above ground level and gusty winds up to 45 miles per hour. Kept likely
probability of precipitation with most locations picking up a tenth to quarter inch of a
mostly Post frontal rain but locations that experience a thunderstorm
could receive amounts up to around a half inch. Monday night...skies
to clear with northwest winds decreasing to 4 to 8 miles per hour after midnight. This
coupled with 850 mb temperatures near zero up to +2c supports upper
30s northwest to lower 40s southeast if bl doesn/T decouple as is predicted
currently. However...local spots may see winds decrease enough toward
daybreak to allow for isolated mins 2 to 5 degrees colder for later
shifts to reassess as this would be near freezing in northwest sections and
also create a patchy frost risk.


Tuesday...a blustery and brisk day with fair skies and few-scattered fair
weather cumulus cloud coverage and northwest winds of 15-25+ miles per hour with highs
60-65 degrees and strong bl mixing. Tuesday night...record or near
record cold mins are suggested. Have added patchy frost NE 1/3 of
area between 09-13z but areas of frost are more likely at this time with
several hours of calm winds for a moderate to heavy frost risk. Local
tools still continue to support mins of 30-35 degrees with isolated
upper 20s possible in the wapsipinicon and Rock River basins for
later shifts. Trends continue to suggest a frost or even a freeze
headline will be needed over NE sections. Some high cirrus may
arrive late night northwest sections and light south winds to keep mins a
few degrees higher there. See climate section below for record mins
both Monday and Tuesday night.


Wednesday and Thursday...fast cyclonic flow with passing short waves
for risk of mainly daytime light showers with low probability of precipitation and light
amounts. Highs below normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s most
locations and mins of upper 40s to lower 50s that local tools support
will need lowering most areas by another 3-5 degrees...or mostly
lower to middle 40s. Thursday night...a strong upper short wave to
pass that besides producing light rain or rain showers will bring in
more cold air that may again approach record cold territory. Low
probability of precipitation at this time but track of low will be key to how high probability of precipitation will need to
be and where. Expect further changes with this system over the next
24-48 hours.


Friday and Saturday...cool and blustery with highs in the 60s...these
values may need a bit more trimming and mins in the lower to middle
40s that also per local thermal values...may also need to be reduced
by at least 5 plus degrees with more frost risk into next weekend.
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lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Mon Sep 17, 2012 9:53 am

Hey Jim I see on the radar that the low has hit Iowa.
Update please...hope your night temps aren't as cold as predicted.

Barb
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igor.glukhovtsev
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Post by igor.glukhovtsev » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:45 am

lucky1 wrote: Bet it won't be as dramatic as that. Barb
Looks like you got some hard frost this morning, Barb? How do your plants do?
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Post by marceli » Fri Oct 12, 2012 12:31 am

Speaking of frost, - Poland recorded about -3C/27F in some places :(
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hardyjim
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Post by hardyjim » Fri Oct 12, 2012 7:30 am

lucky1 wrote:Hey Jim I see on the radar that the low has hit Iowa.
Update please...hope your night temps aren't as cold as predicted.

Barb


Sorry I missed this-we had lows of 30F,30F,33F-went from averaging 79/47 first few days of the month to 35/62
the last few days....77F here yesterday(State high)...the dry air really heats up/cools down fast.

Our temps in Sept were -5F on the low and +4F above the average September high....instead of the normal
78F to 52F we had 82F/47F very unusual!


By the way-quite a difference in temps across Iowa,I saw a low of 12F in La Mars Iowa.
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lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 8:15 am

Good that you've warmed up again Jim.
That was quite the scare for September.

In ANY month, colder than normal lows and warmer than normal highs is not what we palm lovers have been hoping for.

Here's to a mild winter for us all.

Barb
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hardyjim
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Post by hardyjim » Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:54 pm

Will be perfect for the palms but the Bananas and other tropicals are not pleased....

5F dewpoint at one point today with 11% humidity.

Maybe dewpoints in the mid 60s tomorrow with 1-2" rain possible.
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