2011 is another top 10 year by GISS

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TimMAz6
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2011 is another top 10 year by GISS

Post by TimMAz6 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:49 am



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Post by lucky1 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:45 am

Excellent link Tim.

This sentence hit me:
record-breaking global average temperature in the next two to three years because solar activity is on the upswing and the next El Niño will increase tropical Pacific temperatures
Somebody said last year that that creates colder ocean temps in the North Pacific, scouring more cold out of Alaska (and Siberia) into BC...

So much for my wish to have zone 8 winters... :?

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Post by canadianplant » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:06 am

But then there is this sentence :D

""It's always dangerous to make predictions about El Niño, but it's safe to say we'll see one in the next three years," Hansen said. "It won't take a very strong El Niño to push temperatures above 2010."
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Post by TimMAz6 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 12:06 pm

that Joe Bastardi guy is predicting a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple months! Crazy stuff.....hard to believe with temps in our area so warm.

I'm still searching for UAH and RSS to see how 2011 ranked in their system. GISS typically records the warmest temps.
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Post by lucky1 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:23 pm

predicting a sharp drop in global temps
:shock:

If so, the guy's well named.
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Post by canadianplant » Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:21 pm

TimMAz6 wrote:that Joe Bastardi guy is predicting a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple months! Crazy stuff.....hard to believe with temps in our area so warm.

I'm still searching for UAH and RSS to see how 2011 ranked in their system. GISS typically records the warmest temps.
That could jsut be relative to the abnormal highs. Like, if this tred continued, it would be 20C here in march... all march (not saying I wont welcome that :D ) The drop is probably a trend back to normal temps maybe?
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Post by hardyjim » Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:16 pm

Yea,we'll see what March/April are like...
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Post by TimMAz6 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 6:39 pm

Here's one of Joe Bastardi's 2012-2013 predictions.....not sure I believe.

http://youtu.be/zr1rAY9lEaI
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Post by lucky1 » Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:49 pm

He recorded that Sept 2010 and some would believe him that last winter was cold for the entire middle of the continent, north to south.
So his prediction was pretty good a year later.
Hope he's wrong for the rest of it into 2013 and 2014.

Damn...that's the second time I heard that the Pacific Ocean is cooling.
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Post by canadianplant » Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:37 am

lucky1 wrote:He recorded that Sept 2010 and some would believe him that last winter was cold for the entire middle of the continent, north to south.
So his prediction was pretty good a year later.
Hope he's wrong for the rest of it into 2013 and 2014.

Damn...that's the second time I heard that the Pacific Ocean is cooling.
Cold pecific, does not always mean cold/snow:

""We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting," said GISS director James E. Hansen. "So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Niña influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the 10 warmest years on record."

The difference between 2011 and the warmest year in the GISS record (2010) is 0.22°F (0.12°C). This underscores the emphasis scientists put on the long-term trend of global temperature rise. Because of the large natural variability of climate, scientists do not expect temperatures to rise consistently year after year. However, they do expect a continuing temperature rise over decades."

2011 was a la nina year, with cold pacific waters, and it was still toasty. Cold water is only a part of it. That hansen guy mentions solar activity, which is another major player.
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Post by TimMAz6 » Thu Jan 26, 2012 6:58 am

That Hansen guy is a bit unusual for someone so high up in the chain. Google him and you'll find that he goes to GW protests and gets arrested. Not sure if I believe what he says........he seems too bias. His global temp #'s are the warmest of all agencies too. I like to look at UAH and RSS along with GISS. I still haven't found out what UAH and RSS rank 2011. I wonder if they say 2011 is in the top 10?

UAH has good data too:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt

RSS has good data too:
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_t ... _v03_3.txt

vs. GISS:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/
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Post by canadianplant » Thu Jan 26, 2012 7:04 am

The nitty grittys can be argues of course, but all the numbers still show a warming trend to some degree. I dont think anyone is arguing that now (besides the ares that may be cooling at some season). The argument seems to be how long, fast and how warm in general it will be....
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Post by TimMAz6 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 8:14 am

I agree. Ocean levels in the past got some 10 to 20 feet higher than current levels. I would bet we are headed there again.

Joe Bastardi did predict January's Global temp correct. It did drop like he predicted.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/02/uah ... -09-deg-c/
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:04 am

a sharp drop in global temps over the next couple months!
and the current brutal cold in Europe will move...somewhere...gulp!

Climate shifting...maybe in future, March/April will be the new winter. :shock:
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Post by TimMAz6 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:25 am

Hi Barb,

I'm sure it will be 'pay back' time come spring......with below normal temps.
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Post by igor.glukhovtsev » Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:35 am

That what I told ya earlier :P Yesterday morning there was a temperature minus 35,7C registered at the Steppe Crimea and minus 1 C registered at the Novaya Zemlya island close to the North Pole
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:30 am

That what I told ya earlier
Yes you did...was hoping you were wrong :lol:
Stay safe and warm! hope there's enough snow to protect your plants, Igor.

Short video of palm trees in France:
[urlhttp://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_wa ... topstories][/url]

:shock:
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Post by igor.glukhovtsev » Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:59 am

I do not bother about plants but palms. In fact, these min. temps. are common every winter here. Duration is a problem. I guess is a mental problem rather than phytophysiologal one. Normally we have some days above 0 either in January or February. But this winter is something!
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10 best beaches here

Post by lucky1 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:22 am

A few pics of beaches in summer will help with the mental part, Igor

http://www.okanaganvacationguide.com/best-beaches.html
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Post by igor.glukhovtsev » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:27 am

:D :D :D :D :D
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Post by DesertZone » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:37 am

TimMAz6 wrote:Hi Barb,

I'm sure it will be 'pay back' time come spring......with below normal temps.
Thats about what we get here. Warmer Fall temps, but colder than avg. spring weather. :?
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Post by igor.glukhovtsev » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:49 am

It's true for Ontario too. Aaron when the apricot tree starts blooming in you place? This tree is a kind of indicator of the Spring to me.
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:52 am

colder than avg spring weather...yup.
I think this photo was in April 2008.

<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/southslope/2436680803/" title="DSC01295 by edible_plum, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2258/2436 ... e0b5_z.jpg" width="640" height="480" alt="DSC01295"></a>

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Post by igor.glukhovtsev » Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:55 am

What is her name? Right, what was her name four years ago? :oops:
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Post by TimMAz6 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 12:06 pm

I like that pool side photo!
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 3:18 pm

What is her name?
The caption says it's Kim Goldsmith, no I don't know them.
It sure was a funny pic in the newspaper, I recall, as we were all grumbling about how cold April was that year.

edit: and this was my Trachy in April of 2009 (the next year).
<a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/southslope/4169717531/" title="DSC02449 by edible_plum, on Flickr"><img src="http://farm3.staticflickr.com/2706/4169 ... ecdd_z.jpg" width="640" height="480" alt="DSC02449"></a>

Yup, looks like the months of April might be brutal from now on :roll:

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Post by TimMAz6 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:19 pm

Hey Barb,

what's that white stuff on your palm? I forget the name of that stuff javascript:emoticon :D how do you do these smile face things??...or is it my Firefox??
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Re: 2011 is another top 10 year by GISS

Post by hardyjim » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:35 pm

TimMAz6 wrote:2011 was a top 10 year by GISS

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20120119/




Why don't you post this on the http://members3.boardhost.com/HardyPalm/ board? :bootyshake:
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Post by TimMAz6 » Fri Feb 03, 2012 4:50 pm

Hi Jim,

If I post that on the hardy palm board there will be 200 responses and people will be killing each other. People are too sensitive. I think it's fun and educational to see all points of view. I really don't think ANYONE understands the climate system yet......not even close. I bet we won't understand in our lifetime.
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Post by lucky1 » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:29 am

B'sides we're just friendlier here... :headbang:
and WE don't mind laughing at ourselves.
what's that white stuff on your palm
Dandruff.

I've got Firefox, no problem here...at least with THAT :lol:
You simply click the emoticon <---- at the left side.
Seems to work for you...
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Post by hardyjim » Sat Feb 04, 2012 2:51 pm

TimMAz6 wrote:Hi Jim,

If I post that on the hardy palm board there will be 200 responses and people will be killing each other. People are too sensitive. I think it's fun and educational to see all points of view. I really don't think ANYONE understands the climate system yet......not even close. I bet we won't understand in our lifetime.

I know,I was just messing with you...it's a little uptight over there. :tongue:
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Post by TimMAz6 » Sat Feb 04, 2012 9:28 pm

Regarding those smile face images.....I was dragging them into the message :?

Look, it works now.....thanks Barb :!:
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Post by DesertZone » Sun Feb 05, 2012 9:13 am

lucky1 wrote:B'sides we're just friendlier here... :headbang:
and WE don't mind laughing at ourselves.
Thats why we like here. :D
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Post by TimMAz6 » Thu Jan 10, 2013 7:13 pm

2012 Global Temps in at UAH........I don't think GISS or RSS have their 2012 temps out yet.

Globally, 2012 was the 9th warmest of the last 34 years, behind 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2010:

1979 through 2012, ranked from warmest to coolest:
1. 1998 0.419
2. 2010 0.394
3. 2005 0.260
4. 2002 0.218
5. 2009 0.218
6. 2007 0.202
7. 2003 0.187
8. 2006 0.186
9. 2012 0.161
10. 2011 0.130
11. 2004 0.108
12. 2001 0.107
13. 1991 0.020
14. 1987 0.013
15. 1995 0.013
16. 1988 0.012
17. 1980 -0.008
18. 2008 -0.009
19. 1990 -0.022
20. 1981 -0.045
21. 1997 -0.049
22. 1999 -0.056
23. 1983 -0.061
24. 2000 -0.061
25. 1996 -0.076
26. 1994 -0.108
27. 1979 -0.170
28. 1989 -0.207
29. 1986 -0.244
30. 1993 -0.245
31. 1982 -0.250
32. 1992 -0.289
33. 1985 -0.309
34. 1984 -0.353

The following comments are from John Christy:

While 2012 was only the ninth warmest year globally, it was the warmest year on record for both the contiguous 48 U.S. states and for the continental U.S., including Alaska. For the U.S., 2012 started with one of the three warmest Januaries in the 34-year record, saw a record-setting March heat wave, and stayed warm enough for the rest of the year to set a record.

Compared to seasonal norms, March 2012 was the warmest month on record in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Temperatures over the U.S. averaged 2.82 C (almost 5.1° Fahrenheit) warmer than normal in March; the warmest spot on the globe that month was in northern Iowa. The annual average temperature over the conterminous 48 states in 2012 was 0.555 C (about 0.99 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms.

Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest area on the globe throughout 2012 was central Mongolia, where temperatures averaged about 1.39 C (about 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms. The warmest area was north of central Russia in the Kara Sea, where temperatures averaged 2.53 C (about 4.55 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for 2012.

Compared to seasonal norms, over the past month the coldest area on the globe was eastern Mongolia, where temperatures were as much as 4.55 C (about 8.19 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than seasonal norms. The “warmest” area was off the coast of the Antarctic near South America, where temperatures averaged 3.79 C (about 6.82 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than seasonal norms for December.
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Jan 11, 2013 7:21 am

including Alaska
They should exclude Alaska.
What that would do to your numbers! :shock:

There's a guy over at WXforum called "Scalphunter" from Alaska...35 below (F)!!!! in November 2012.
http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=16997.0

All the USA members of PN would be ordering Cyrtostachys and Coconut seeds... :lol:

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Post by TimMAz6 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:25 am

Hi Barb,

I see your 5F right now.............brrrrrr.........keep the cold out west!
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Post by lucky1 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:01 am

Yup...it's here.
Bloody cold.

Temps dropped like a stone last night.
The dog doesn't even want to go out for a pee. :roll:
keep the cold out west!
Nope. :wink:

Barb :verycold:

EDIT: just saw f/cast that ALASKA is getting really WARM, with rain and flooding expected. SHEESH!
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If you drink, don't drive. Don't even putt.

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TimMAz6
Palm Grove
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Location: Massachusetts USDA 6b

Post by TimMAz6 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:19 pm

it's been so warm here I dragged all my plants outside and watered them........they will be outside for the entire night.........the low is SUPPOSE to be 39F. Should I trust them?????? The other day they said the low was gonna be 29F and I didn't keep the 'hats' on the protection and I didn't turn the lights on for supplemental heat................guess what...........I woke up to 19F..........boy that blew..............I hope the Tetrapanex trunk is OK. :?

PS, when dogs don't want to go outside you know it's cold! :lol:
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lucky1
Arctic Palm Plantation
Posts: 11325
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:31 pm
Location: Vernon BC, Zone 5a or 5b (close to 6A!)

Post by lucky1 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:07 pm

Should I trust them?????? The other day they said the low was gonna be 29F and I didn't keep the 'hats' on the protection and I didn't turn the lights on for supplemental heat................guess what...........I woke up to 19F.
Based on that record, NO. :x

I hope you can find some old blankets to wrap around the Tetrapanex :wink:

Barb
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TimMAz6
Palm Grove
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Location: Massachusetts USDA 6b

Post by TimMAz6 » Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:38 pm

Hi Barb,

I can see your basking in the heat now...............up to 14F. :lol:

Sorry but I have to rub it in. :bootyshake:
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