ARCT-OCALYPSE!

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TerdalFarm
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ARCT-OCALYPSE!

Post by TerdalFarm » Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:01 pm

OK, I decided to introduce a little more humour on this forum.

Below is a copy-and-paste of the latest of the regular emails I subscribe to from my state climatologist. He tries to keep us reading by making bad jokes.

Feel to skip unless you are way into OK weather. I'll summarize.

We have had an unusually mild winter so far. I think my lowest has been 14 oF, and each day it has gotten above freezing. We are finally going to get a little taste of "winter" as you folks know it next week. I'm sure I'll be whining about "global cooling" a week from now.

For perspective, the state climatologist compares what is coming to what we had in January of last year. For example, the first link he gives (right here if you don't want to read down:
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... low_20.png )
shows that in early January 2010, Bixby had 88 hours continually with temps below 20 oF, and an overall low of 2 oF.
(Recall I was conveniently in Belize then :D :D )

For those interested in Sabal minor "McCurtain", you can refer to the lower right corner where the Idabel airport reported 45 hours continuously below 20 oF and a lowest of 11 oF. The videos I have linked to previously show that the wild plants recovered, flowered and set seed in 2010.

Now, even my Canadian friends agree this was chilly weather, but still USDA zone 7 for me and Zone 8 for the wild Sabal minor, right?

As for the expected ARCT-OCALYPSE! this coming week, I think we'll have several days continually below freezing, but the forecasts I see call for us getting a bit above 20 oF every day and lows still in the Zone 7b range. If I gardened in England that might cause panic, but I don't see a problem. I'll re-check and touch-up palm protection on Saturday, but I think I have been ready for weather like this since early December.

If you have any suggestions you have been holding back on, please give them now and I'll fix things this weekend.
--Erik




MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
January 5, 2011 January 5, 2011 January 5, 2011 January 5, 2011


The OCS/Mesonet Ticker: Fair to mostly punny.


ARCT-OCALYPSE!

No word yet to determine if next week's deep freeze is a true bread-and-milk
emergency, but I'm headed to Braum's tonight just in case. You can never have
too much ice cream at times like this. With talk of the coldest weather to hit
these parts in quite some time, I thought I'd try and remember the last time,
in these parts, it got quite that cold.

Ah yes, 365 days ago! As some of you remember, it was downright chilly the first
week of January 2010. You can see the damage done by looking at this map of
hours below 20 degrees from the January 5-11 last year (including lowest
temperature reached, -6 degrees at Vinita and Goodwell), courtesy of the
Oklahoma Mesonet:

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... low_20.png

There are vast differences to go along with the similarities to last year's
brush with the North Pole versus this year.

Similarities:

1) The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index was decidedly negative for a decisively
long time, giving the eastern half of the U.S. a bone-chilling early winter.

2009-10 - http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... 009-10.png
2010-11 - http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... 010-11.png

Okay, that's all I can think of, other than something about Lindsay Lohan being
in either jail or rehab. Either is a safe pick probably.

Differences:

1) El Nino vs. La Nina - Last year we had a strong El Nino combine with the
AO to give us plenty of wintry weather prior to January. Does the Christmas
Eve blizzard ring a bell? This year Oklahoma and the Southern Plains have been
under the spell of La Nina and its broad dry pattern.

drought monitor, early January
2010: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... an2010.jpg
2011: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110105/ok_dm.png

percent of normal rainfall
2009: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... 09_pct.png
2010: http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20110 ... 10_pct.png

2) Preceding warmth: October-December 2009 was the 12th coolest statewide
and 2.4 degrees below normal while October-December 2010 was the 44th warmest,
0.8 degrees above normal.

My point? Well, that's your first mistake in reading this far and thinking I
had one.

In all seriousness, however, the point is that this cold air outbreak is going
to come as much more of a shock this go around. People, pets, livestock ... all
are going to be particularly vulnerable since our winter has been so mild thus
far with little acclimation to true arctic air.

To further complicate matters for agricultural producers, the wheat crop has
become stressed by droughy conditions in some areas and will not like the
frigid temperatures one bit. A good blanket of snow would be a nice gift to
help insulate those sub-layers of soil from the really chilly air above the
surface.

At any rate, the iceman cometh! Crank up your heat, buy plenty of ice cream and
act like it's July.

(liability clause forced by the Ticker's lawyers: eat the ice cream indoors)

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253
gmcmanus@mesonet.org

January 5 in Oklahoma History:
Record Maximum 85 F at HAMMON 3 SSW (1927)
Record Minimum -16 F at GUTHRIE (1947), HULAH DAM (1947), REYDON (1942)
Record Precip 4.70" at HOLLOW (1946)
+Record Snowfall 8.20" at WAYNOKA (1962)
(Oklahoma History = since roughly 1895)
+ - May include hail or other forms of frozen precipitation



Cameron_z6a_N.S.
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Post by Cameron_z6a_N.S. » Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:14 pm

Thanks for the info, especially about the S. minor "McCurtain" area!
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... /71601.gif" alt="Click for Shearwater, Nova Scotia Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />

lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:36 pm

Love the bread-and-milk emergency reference.
Need far more humor in weather ...

Looks like a couple of deep lows heading east across the Pacific...wonder how far into the continent they'll travel.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/satellit ... es=1&clf=1

Ice cream?
Rum will keep us warmer... :drunken:

Batten down the hatches, Erik, turn the heat on.
Barb
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TerdalFarm
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Post by TerdalFarm » Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:40 pm

I have a bottle of good rum from Belize yet!

As for the heat, I had a bunch of firewood delivered and stacked yesterday (photo below).
It pays to get the weather forecasts first, before the prices go up! :D

<a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/GM ... site"><img src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/_r-MvN4jW1sE/TSPFa ... AG0436.jpg" height="640" width="480" /></a>

lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:03 pm

You have somebody stack your firewood?

ahem... :lol: :lol:
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Post by hardyjim » Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:53 am

Erik

I hope that's not your motorcycle :bootyshake: :wink:

Anyway.....funny post.

I guess it depends where you are in regard to what you hear about this coming cold wave(?)

Nothing out of the ordinary seen here at this point but one thing is for sure...
they don't seem to know as there is a lot of disagreement about the severity.

Nothing like last year yet* here,we have not as yet been below zero(F).......-12(F)
last year and nothing below zero forecast...although any snow cover in combination
with the forecast temps/any cold air coming down would change that for sure.
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... rfield.gif" alt="Click for Fairfield, Iowa Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" />

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Post by canadianplant » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:41 am

Im jelous of those temps. LOL. Weve had 3 days at -11 to around -14C as a high. LOL

WHat a difference a year makes! This time last year, we were flirting with 0C for half the month. And it was very very dry here. ( less then 60cm of snow all winter, compared to 150-200 cm regularly) Even if you count the little rain we got, thats still less then 40mm of precipitation all winter long.

This year is more typical ( except before the middle of november). Most days below 0C, and nights hovering around -20C. Still, we usualy have MANY more days below the average low. WEve had mabey 3 so far. It isnt last winter, but its actualy milder then the "norm"
"The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results" - einstien

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Post by canadianplant » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:46 am

These are the low temps for OKC according to the canadian weather network starting saturday:

-2°C 0°C -2°C -11°C -14°C -13°C

My low temps at that time will be jsut 2 or 3C lower then you erik!
"The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results" - einstien

Check out my new Blog! http://canadianplant.wordpress.com/

<a href="http://www.wunderground.com/global/stat ... big2"><img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... /71749.gif" alt="Click for Thunder Bay, Ontario Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" /></a>

lucky1
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Post by lucky1 » Fri Jan 07, 2011 8:21 am

Erik did say winter normally arrives in January...

Barb
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TerdalFarm
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Post by TerdalFarm » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:46 pm

Barb,
Usually, although we have had big snows in November and it was 0 oF in mid-December about five years ago.
But January is typically the coldest; it is also our driest month, so snows in January are usually modest.

I'm still watching the forecasts as they are changing. I'm more focused on my classes, which begin Monday morning. I'll take care of plants tomorrow.

As of now, it seems the coldest will be in the 5-10 oF range at the lowest, but with winds. If the winds die it may get colder--you know how it goes. Probably < 6 " of snow all together.

I'll post photos and questions tomorrow as I try to figure out what else to do. My current plans are more water bottles and lots more hay as temporary mulch (remember, I have tons of the stuff).

You also asked about the firewood. The man in the brown coat is Dennis, our friendly neighborhood wood guy. He has good wood and he stacks it. The boy in the blue coat was my sun, visiting from College.

The bike is W's; the cover had blown off but it is back on. Nice paint job on the tank, huh?
--Erik

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sidpook
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Post by sidpook » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:04 am

Whatever happened to Global Warming! LOL...Just joking

Image
Mike Trautner

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Post by TerdalFarm » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:17 am

W would love to see you model the 2011 attire on that graph :lol:

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Post by hardyjim » Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:20 am

Are you guys "swingers" Eric?
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TerdalFarm
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Post by TerdalFarm » Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:33 am

W and Mike are FB buddies and W likes to flirt long distance. He changed his profile photo for her last night.

Back on topic...I had a long pipe heating cable laying unused in a barn which I wrapped around the little Waggy, the Butia and the larger Waggy. They are all close to each other. This one gets warmer than the ones I am used to. I guess they are all different.

I also placed more water bottles (2 liter soda bottles) next to palms and packed more hay, and covered plants more securely.

Forecast really does not look bad. I hope this is all overkill.

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Post by tropicman » Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:22 am

Well starting to look pretty questionable here!

Image

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Post by TerdalFarm » Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:25 am

Wow!
Bet you wish you still lived in OK, huh?
It will be cold down here, but definitely "zone 7" stuff.
--Erik
P.S. Jim, W flirts with Don on FB, too. Mike, don't get jealous.

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sidpook
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Post by sidpook » Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:29 am

TerdalFarm wrote:W would love to see you model the 2011 attire on that graph :lol:
LOL, gladly!
Mike Trautner

<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... udubon.gif" alt="Click for Audubon, New Jersey Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" /></a>

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Post by DesertZone » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:28 pm

sidpook wrote:Whatever happened to Global Warming! LOL...Just joking

Image
That is awesome! :lol: :lol: :lol:
Shoshone Idaho weather
<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... ooding.gif" alt="Click for Pearce, Arizona Forecast" border="0" height="50" width="150" /></a>
Here's to all the global warming pushers, may your winters be -30 below and four feet of snow in your driveway. Because I want you happy.
-Aaron-

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TerdalFarm
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Post by TerdalFarm » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:32 pm

First snow of the winter just started falling, so it is the long johns for me.

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Post by canadianplant » Sun Jan 09, 2011 1:38 pm

Whats the msot snow youve ever seen down there erik??
"The definition of insanity, is doing the same thing over and over, and expecting different results" - einstien

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sidpook
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Post by sidpook » Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:05 pm

TerdalFarm wrote:First snow of the winter just started falling, so it is the long johns for me.
chilly there huh?
Mike Trautner

<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... udubon.gif" alt="Click for Audubon, New Jersey Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" /></a>

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sidpook
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Post by sidpook » Sun Jan 09, 2011 2:06 pm

TerdalFarm wrote:First snow of the winter just started falling, so it is the long johns for me.
chilly there huh?
Mike Trautner

<img src="http://weathersticker.wunderground.com/ ... udubon.gif" alt="Click for Audubon, New Jersey Forecast" border="0" height="60" width="468" /></a>

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